How to compare property prices with actual transactions: listings or transaction data

To compare property prices with actual transactions, use transaction data for standard apartments and houses that sell regularly, because it shows the price that was actually paid, not the price hoped for. In Latvia this is the State Land Service’s open data on registered transactions. Listings are the better choice when you are looking for a specific property to buy. For rare and non-standard properties neither works well: there are too few transactions, and an individual valuation is needed. On Hesti, apartment listings and transactions sit side by side, so you can compare an asking price with actual deals in the same neighbourhood.

In short: transaction data wins for valuation, listings win for active searching, and together they give the full market picture. Below is a detailed comparison by the criteria a real buyer and seller use.

How to compare property prices with actual transactions

You compare property prices with actual transactions by working out the price per square metre of usable floor area (the transaction price divided by the usable area), and then comparing the total price, land area, state of renovation, parking, energy efficiency and distance to public transport separately. Transaction data is less useful when the property type is rare and there are few transactions; an asking price on its own does not tell you what the property will sell for.

The deciding factor depends on the situation:

• A fast-moving market: a seller can change an asking price any day, but a transaction only appears in the data once it is registered. So look at both and check the transactions of the last few months: only they show whether buyers actually pay the new price.
• Asking price vs. actual price: transactions win, because only they show the amount paid.
• A changing neighbourhood (new infrastructure): new expectations show up in asking prices straight away, but only transactions show whether buyers pay them.

Do not compare the price per square metre of a new development’s gross area with the price of a resale property’s usable area without checking how each was measured.

Listing prices vs. transaction prices: the differences

The main difference is simple: listings show what the seller wants, transactions show what actually happened. The gap can come from, for example, time on the market (a listing can stay up for months), price negotiation and buyer demand in the particular segment.

There is no single, publicly verified Latvia-wide discount from asking price to closing price. Any claim about a "standard discount" would therefore be unfounded; it can only be worked out segment by segment from real transactions. We describe how to do that step by step in how to compare listings with actual transactions.

Sometimes a transaction amount is higher than you would expect. That happens when a parking space, a storage room, furniture or another property was sold together with the apartment. So before comparing, check what exactly the transaction includes.

A concrete example of scale: according to Latvia Sotheby’s International Realty, in 2025 2,163 premium apartment deals (from €150,000) worth €465.4 million were registered in Riga, the Riga region and Jūrmala, 21% more than in 2024. Listing counts do not show deal dynamics like these.

Winner: depends on your role. To understand what is asked and what is paid you need both, but transactions give the real answer.

Transaction history vs. listings in the apartment market

Apartments are the part of the market with the most comparable listings: Hesti has collected 189,000+ apartment listings. But a listing’s price may have been set months ago and may no longer match the market. Transaction history, meanwhile, shows the actual trend in each neighbourhood.

Segments differ even within one city. According to Global Property Guide, the average asking price of standard Soviet-era apartments in Riga was €978/m² in September 2026. In Mežaparks, by contrast, where almost all deals are in new developments, premium apartments sold for around €3,000/m² on average between 2024 and July 2025, according to Latvia Sotheby’s. These figures cover different segments, so comparing them directly is misleading.

A practical tip: always compare an apartment’s price with historical transaction data in that exact neighbourhood, not with the city average.

Winner: transactions when you need the real price; listings when you need to find an available property quickly.

Why it matters how often transaction data is updated

Update frequency is decisive, because properties sell every month and outdated transaction data misleads about the current price. Hesti’s transaction data comes from the State Land Service’s open data and is updated every month. But a deal only appears in the data once it is registered, so the newest records can describe deals agreed months earlier. Asking prices, by contrast, can change any day.

Why this matters in numbers: according to Central Statistical Bureau data compiled by Global Property Guide, housing prices in Latvia rose 11.4% year on year in Q2 2026, 10.3% in Q1 and 10.5% in Q4 2025. At 11.4% a year, prices move by roughly 5% in six months, so six-month-old data already skews a valuation.

That is why Hesti’s market data and data map are built on the latest registered transactions.

Winner: regularly updated transaction data, because outdated data loses its value fastest in a rising market.

When listings are less reliable than transactions

Listings are less reliable than transactions when a property is sold without a public listing, or when it sits in a very high segment with few buyers: then there is nothing to check the asking price against.

Premium transaction data illustrates this well. According to a Latvia Sotheby’s study covering 2024 to July 2025, premium neighbourhoods outside central Riga registered 124 apartment deals at an average of around €2,730/m² and 49 house deals at around €1,500/m². Mežaparks had almost 100 apartment deals, 97% of them in new developments, at around €3,000/m² on average. Averages like these come only from actual transactions; asking prices do not show them.

Keep investor portfolios in mind too: bulk or internal deals may never be listed at all.

Winner: transactions, because in these situations the listing price is the least reliable.

Transaction map or listings: when to use which

Use the transaction map when you are analysing a trend or valuing a property; use the listings when you are looking for a specific property to buy now. The two tools answer different questions, so neither replaces the other.

The Hesti data map shows actual transactions across Latvia by neighbourhood, while the listings catalogue shows apartments available right now. In practice: first use the map to confirm the real price level in a neighbourhood, then find a property in the catalogue and check whether its asking price fits that level.

Winner: the map for analysis and valuation, the listings for finding a specific property. If in doubt: if the question is "what is it worth", use the map; if it is "what can I buy", use the listings.

Property valuation: transaction data vs. listings

A property valuation uses both, but transaction data carries more weight, because it directly reflects the price actually paid, while listings give context on market expectations. A proper valuation adjusts the transaction price for the municipality, land area, energy efficiency, condition and legal status.

Some concrete benchmarks from real transactions: according to a Latio market overview cited by varianti.lv, a private house of up to 100 m² built after 2000 cost around €145,000 on average in 2025, and a comparable house of up to 200 m² around €260,000. These are market averages, not valuation rules, and must not be applied without adjustments. The total value of house deals that year reached €446 million (+12%), while the number of deals barely changed at 5,174 (+0.4%). The source attributes this both to more expensive deals and to an even price rise across the segment, so the average alone does not tell you what a specific property is worth.

How to put this into practice is explained in how to evaluate real estate, and an apartment’s value can be estimated with the Hesti property value calculator.

Winner: transactions, because they reflect what actually happened, while listings show only what was hoped for.

When this comparison does not work

Comparing transactions with listings does not work for very unusual properties, for markets with few transactions and for newly published listings. In these situations a statistical comparison misleads, and an individual valuation is the better choice.

Specific cases where the method falls short:

• Unique properties: historic properties, non-standard land; there are no comparable transactions.
• Niche markets with few deals: according to Latvia Sotheby’s, Baltezers and Alderi had only 18 premium apartment deals (around €2,000/m² on average), and Berģi and Upesciems 14 and 9 premium house deals respectively. The study’s authors themselves say that Berģi and Upesciems have so few deals that the price level is not representative enough: one unusual transaction can distort the average.
• Very new listings: a listing that is a few days old has not yet been tested by a transaction.

In these cases, choose an individual valuation and a combination of methods rather than statistics alone.

A practical approach: what to choose for your decision

The choice depends on your role. Below are three typical situations and the combination of tools for each.

• A buyer looking for a property: start with listings to see what is available, and check each against the neighbourhood’s transaction trends. Tools: the listings catalogue and transaction data.
• A valuation (what is it worth): use transaction data as the basis and the map for context. Tools: the data map and a Hesti property report.
• A seller setting a price: look at active listings to see the competition, and at historical transactions to see the real price in your neighbourhood. Tools: listings and historical transactions.

In all three cases Hesti lets you compare an apartment listing with actual transactions in one place.

Frequently asked questions

Is the transaction price always lower than the asking price?

Not necessarily. The asking price is the seller’s demand and the final price is agreed in negotiation, so it can be lower than or equal to the asking price. There is no single, publicly verified Latvia-wide discount from asking price to closing price, so compare the specific neighbourhood and segment instead of relying on a general percentage.

How often should transaction data be updated to be reliable?

A monthly rhythm is enough, because properties sell every month. In a rising market, where housing prices rose 11.4% year on year in Q2 2026 (Central Statistical Bureau data), prices move by roughly 5% in six months. Hesti’s transaction data is updated every month, but even then the newest records can be deals agreed months earlier. So check current listings for the latest direction too.

Which data is better for valuing an apartment in Riga?

Transaction data is better for valuation, because it shows the price actually paid. Listings are useful as context on market expectations. Ideally, compare the price per square metre of usable area from real transactions in the same neighbourhood, then adjust for condition, energy efficiency and floor.

When is it better to rely on listings rather than transactions?

When you are looking for a specific available property. For rare properties and neighbourhoods with few deals neither works well: if a neighbourhood has only 9–18 deals, one unusual deal can distort the average (Latvia Sotheby’s itself calls volumes like that not representative enough). Listings there at least show what is on offer, but the value is better set with an individual valuation.

Sources

• Global Property Guide: Latvia price history
• Latvia Sotheby’s International Realty: premium residential districts research
• Latvia Sotheby’s International Realty: 2025 transactions
• Varianti.lv: private house prices (in Russian)